Exxon Mobil (XOM)

[quantumleap]

I have a friend who works for the US Energy Department in Utah. Two years ago he said that oil prices will go to $100/barrel by 2010. This was when oil was around $45/barrel. He was working on projects that would extract oil from the shale in Utah and Wyoming. At $100/barrel it would be financially feasible to do so.

Since there is still room for profit at those prices I started researching oil company stocks. Some of the things I like about XOM is that revenue and net income are near all-time highs and they have lots of cash on-hand.

Speaking of cash on-hand, this leads me to one of the three most favorable things I like about this stock. That being that Exxon is buying its own stock to reduce the number of outstanding shares. That guarantees that its price will continue to go up in light of the history of the price of this stock.

The second thing I like about this stock is that it splits 2:1 every 5-10 years and when it splits the stock price continues to go up. The last time it split was 2002. I'm thinking that I will be investing monthly and after a couple years my investment will double when the stock splits.

The third thing I like is that this stock has increased in price since 1970. I plan on investing in this stock for the long run. Here is a graph of historical prices.

I will be tracking my purchases in this thread by listing the number of shares I buy along with the price.

Any and all comments are welcome.

 

[Brooklynbomber]

peak oil is real

all oil stocks will double in value within 5 years

 

[quantumleap]

Barron's upgrades XOM from Hold to Buy:

http://online.barrons.com/preview_l...80705258082216.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Exxon Mobil (XOM: NYSE) By A.G. Edwards ($85.59, July 30, 2007)

WE ARE UPGRADING Exxon Mobil to Buy from Hold.

Exxon Mobil remains the bellwether of the integrated oil and gas group, propelled by its earnings consistency, high returns on capital employed (ROCE), superior asset base and strong balance sheet.

Given our positive long-term stance on the oil-market fundamentals (both upstream and downstream), we believe the recent (and sharp) pullback in Exxon commenced with, in our opinion, an overreaction to its slightly lower-than-expected earnings, and was further compounded by the overall sell-off in the market. Accordingly, we believe this represents ...

(THE FULL BARRON'S ARTICLE IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS.)

 

[quantumleap]

As does A.G. Edwards:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...4282-B289-3B6937CB4143}&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A.G. Edwards on Monday upgraded Exxon Mobil (XOM : exxon mobil corp com
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 86.00+0.41+0.48%

3:03pm 07/30/2007

Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio
Analyst
Create alertInsider
Discuss
Financials
Sponsored by:
XOM86.00, +0.41, +0.5%) to buy from hold. "We believe the recent share price pullback that commenced with an over-reaction, in our opinion, to its lower-than-expected earnings, now represents an attractive entry point," A.G. Edwards said in a note to clients. Analysts set a $95 a share price target for the oil giant, based on 17 times it mid-cycle earnings estimate of $5.50 a share. Shares of Exxon Mobil fell 5 cents to $85.54 in recent trades

 

[Kruser6]

You jump in yet QL?

I like what I see here. What do you think the risk is on this stock?

 

[quantumleap]

You jump in yet QL?

I like what I see here. What do you think the risk is on this stock?

I had a bunch of repairs on my vehicle so I will be jumping in shortly. This is for the long run. This will be part of my retirement package so I'm looking at 15 years.

Some "experts" see the biofuels industry taking market share but I believe big oil will be here until I retire. Monster profits, good dividends, good ratings, and as I mentioned above, XOM is buying back their own stock which will lead to increasing prices.

 

[quantumleap]

After Bullish Pullback, It's Time to Hop on Exxon

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/new...72378.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

A healthy correction, or a top?

This is the question that has plagued man since the beginning of time. Well, maybe not that long, but at least as long as there has been a stock market. When the market goes down, the majority of stocks move lower with the major indices.

This is also the case when the market rallies, but there are factors that surface when the selling starts which don't happen during rallies. Call it the crowd mentality, but when fear hits the markets, all the possible scenarios of devastation and destruction play out in participants' minds, and excuses are found to sell stocks of all types and variety.

Margin calls can further exacerbate the selling pressure by forcing traders to sell stronger names due to their value and liquidity. The borrowed money is extra fuel for the ride, and when the ride is over, this excess liquidity gets taken out of the market.

So, how do we determine if a stock is really in trouble or just succumbing to general market fears and the mechanical man-made forces associated with it? One simple way is to use the price action and chart configuration to help us. We can achieve this by breaking stocks into two groups, ones that are under distribution and ones that are undergoing a normal healthy pullback.

Stocks that have been trading sideways, have had failed rally attempts or have been rising on lighter volume and are unable to hold their gains are ones that are displaying distributive characteristics. This doesn't happen all at once, but it is a process that lasts a few months or longer. The longer the process the more potential risk the stock has.

A healthy correction is one where a stock has been advancing with the majority of technical factors intact, such as expanding volume into strength, a series of higher highs and higher lows and continuing to make progress in price appreciation prior to the decline. The latter group of stocks is where the opportunities lie.

Let's use large-cap energy as an example. How are subprime mortgages bad for energy companies? Margin calls make this group a good candidate to sell, and fear of further losses makes us think to sell them before there's a problem. These stocks were advancing prior to the decline and making new highs on expanding volume.

Take a look at Exxon Mobil (XOM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr). The stock peaked in early July and has since pulled straight back over the last nine days. This is a bullish pullback within the context of a strong primary uptrend due to broader market weakness, just the type traders should look to buy.

On the other hand, if we look at a stock like U.S. Steel (X - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), we see that this stock started to roll over in May. It was showing distributive behavior before the market started to correct. The stock had already formed a bearish head-and-shoulders reversal prior to the market decline, and when the correction started, the stock broke out and confirmed the bearish pattern. This is clearly not a stock we would look to buy for a rebound in the broader market.

As traders wade back into the market and look to buy weakness, they should carefully consider whether the pullbacks are bullish corrections within a primary move higher, or topping formations that suggest further weakness or at least difficultly pushing higher.

 

[quantumleap]

Bad with the good

Thought I would post the bad news along with the good news.

<TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yfnc_modtitle1><TD><SMALL>UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES HISTORY</SMALL></TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yfnc_datamodoutline1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle width="1%">Date</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Research Firm</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Action</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>From</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>To</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 noWrap>6-Aug-07</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Oppenheimer</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=middle>Downgrade</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=middle>Buy</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=middle>Neutral</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[quantumleap]

Thought I would post the bad news along with the good news.

<TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yfnc_modtitle1><TD><SMALL>UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES HISTORY</SMALL></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yfnc_datamodoutline1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle width="1%">Date</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Research Firm</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Action</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>From</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>To</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 noWrap>6-Aug-07</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Oppenheimer</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=middle>Downgrade</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=middle>Buy</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=middle>Neutral</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Here's the explanation:


Oppenheimer Sees Near-Term Risk for Stocks Oppenheimer & Co. lowered its ratings from "Buy" to "Neutral" on a number of oil and gas companies, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Marathon and Hess. "We now believe that, despite the decline in the stock prices in the last three weeks, the downside risk exceeds their upside potential," said analyst Fadel Gheit. "Despite OPEC production cuts of 1.7 million barrels per day, worldwide crude oil inventories are near their five-year high, which suggests that actual consumption is lower than the apparent demand. We expect a pullback in oil prices."

 

[SonnySixKill]

Take a look at Nexen NXY, another oil/gas company. Huge upside with another oil/gas field coming online.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:NXY

 

[Presto]

Larry Kudlow was very bearish on the price of oil, today on his show. He says short it to $40. While Larry tends to exaggerate, he's a sharp guy.
I bought some VLO a few days ago and it's killing me so far.

 

[quantumleap]

Take a look at Nexen NXY, another oil/gas company. Huge upside with another oil/gas field coming online.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:NXY

Thanks Sonny. In my first paragraph of the first post in this thread I mention how my friend is working with the shale oil in Utah and Wyoming. He also mentioned that the Canadians were working with the sand oil in Alberta. Oil is rather expensive to get in the sand as it has to be heated and then processed. But at $100/barrel that oil would be cost-effective to obtain.

 

[quantumleap]

Larry Kudlow was very bearish on the price of oil, today on his show. He says short it to $40. While Larry tends to exaggerate, he's a sharp guy.
I bought some VLO a few days ago and it's killing me so far.

I've heard some people say it could go to $60.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070806/energy_sector_midday_roundup.html?.v=1

I think I may hold off on buying this stock until after Labor Day. I've read where oil prices mirror gas prices since there is such little price margin between the two. If gas prices go lower, gas companies can't make money if the price of oil is too high so oil has to go lower too.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/08/06/oi...omm-cx_ra_0806markets50.html?partner=yahootix

When I do start to buy it will be for the long run. Maybe 10-15 years. Oil should be a good bet for the long run.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118652728897290976.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

 

[Brooklynbomber]

right now an excellent time to buy energy canroys .they've been unneccessarily hit hard in the last week, shit since the tax announcement on halloween, but thats 4 years away and a non-issue imo

most pay around 12% dividend - added to my position and bought a nice chunk of pvx and pwe yesterday.

I think natural gas is set to explode here with 6 months, and alot of these canroys are great ng plays too. I like aav.

more importantly, if kudlow is bearish on oil, that means it goes to $80

 

[MynaByrd]

Barron's upgrades XOM from Hold to Buy:

http://online.barrons.com/preview_l...80705258082216.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Exxon Mobil (XOM: NYSE) By A.G. Edwards ($85.59, July 30, 2007)

WE ARE UPGRADING Exxon Mobil to Buy from Hold.

Exxon Mobil remains the bellwether of the integrated oil and gas group, propelled by its earnings consistency, high returns on capital employed (ROCE), superior asset base and strong balance sheet.

Given our positive long-term stance on the oil-market fundamentals (both upstream and downstream), we believe the recent (and sharp) pullback in Exxon commenced with, in our opinion, an overreaction to its slightly lower-than-expected earnings, and was further compounded by the overall sell-off in the market. Accordingly, we believe this represents ...

(THE FULL BARRON'S ARTICLE IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS.)

my pops just bought this stock. shit man, u should see his room. he has stacks and stacks of those Barron's newspapers. idk if its true, but he keeps on reminding me that we will always be needing oil. wish u the best if u decide to buy this stock

 

[Phaedrus]

Interesting factoid: Exxon is one of just three companies left in the world that have a AAA rating with Moody's (the other two are Toyota and Johnson & Johnson -- Nestle was downgraded this past week.)


Phaedrus

 

[cussin'it]

Interesting factoid: Exxon is one of just three companies left in the world that have a AAA rating with Moody's (the other two are Toyota and Johnson & Johnson -- Nestle was downgraded this past week.)


Phaedrus

True, but AA+ still ain't too shabby.

 

[quantumleap]

Interesting factoid: Exxon is one of just three companies left in the world that have a AAA rating with Moody's (the other two are Toyota and Johnson & Johnson -- Nestle was downgraded this past week.)


Phaedrus

Good info Phaedrus. I wasn't aware of this.

 

[Phaedrus]

posted by cussin' it:

posted by Phaedrus:

... Exxon is one of just three companies left in the world that have a AAA rating with Moody's ...

True, but AA+ still ain't too shabby.

I understand; still, I found it suprising that there were so few AAAs. Isn't that low relative to historical ratings?

Speaks well for Exxon in any event.


Phaedrus

 

[CookieNBabe]

I have a friend who works for the US Energy Department in Utah. Two years ago he said that oil prices will go to $100/barrel by 2010. This was when oil was around $45/barrel. He was working on projects that would extract oil from the shale in Utah and Wyoming. At $100/barrel it would be financially feasible to do so.

Since there is still room for profit at those prices I started researching oil company stocks. Some of the things I like about XOM is that revenue and net income are near all-time highs and they have lots of cash on-hand.

Speaking of cash on-hand, this leads me to one of the three most favorable things I like about this stock. That being that Exxon is buying its own stock to reduce the number of outstanding shares. That guarantees that its price will continue to go up in light of the history of the price of this stock.

The second thing I like about this stock is that it splits 2:1 every 5-10 years and when it splits the stock price continues to go up. The last time it split was 2002. I'm thinking that I will be investing monthly and after a couple years my investment will double when the stock splits.

The third thing I like is that this stock has increased in price since 1970. I plan on investing in this stock for the long run. Here is a graph of historical prices.

I will be tracking my purchases in this thread by listing the number of shares I buy along with the price.

Any and all comments are welcome.

QL, I too like and happen to own some XOM stock. Not a lot but I feel it belongs in any diverse portfolio. Having said that, I am not sure I would want to be ONLY in XOM, maybe I misunderstood your post. Not trying to be critical, I tend to sound that way in my messages, but dont mean to.

If, for instance you are fairly sure oil will be up in the 100/barrel price range, you can simply buy the symbol USO, and get full benefit of that move without having to hope Exxon will gain equally in the rising cost of the commodity. This would net you roughly a 50% gain in your account, based on todays crude oil price of 69.00 per barrel. (the us oil fund on the amex tracks the spot price almost perfectly). However, you do not receive a cash dividend in the meantime, if you took that route.

Companies that buy back their stock. I like the fact that they have cash to do that, and are willing to do it, it signals they think the stock is cheap relative to the market. Many reasons for doing this, and sometimes it can have temporary negative effects. Lets look at this chart of AutoZone and NSM, both announced agressive stock buybacks in early June of 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=NSM&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=azo

Sometimes buying back stock can mean the cash reserve is better utilized by reinvesting into themselves, but this can also be seen as a signal that management sees no opportunity to further grow outward, and therefore wants to reduce the number of outstanding shares, before the PPS takes a hit, or shows flattening out. But if this is the case, it can still be temporary and minor. And with a company this size, that is dominating its competition in a monopoly, it doesnt scare me as much as it would if it were, say........McDonalds, or in this case, Autozone auto parts.

You mention the 2 for 1 stock splits. I do not know the history of Exxons stock buyback announcements over the past 15 yrs, but would think they would not plan on splitting it anytime soon, if they are now embarking on a re-purchase track. It sounds like they want to reduce the number of shares outstanding, and if true, that would fly in the face of splitting and issuing 100% more shares of stock out into the market. Also, the share buyback program can help either reduce the amount of cash outlay via the dividends paid (on fewer shares), OR they can increase shareholders dividends and make the stock even more attractive to buyers. Dont know which way they would go on that, and would advise you to research it.

Thats about the closest I can come to mustering any cautionary remarks on a fine company that has an excellent record for so many decades. And never will you groan when it costs you another 9.00 to fill up the family S.U.V.!! I like to see young people make long term investments, especially in the market, and wish you the best.

One last thing, the Democrats and media tend to Hate Exxon, and you have to wade thru that, with an election coming up, but the track record speaks for itself.

Regards